Human Tech Tree
If solved2030s? · If Solved (becomes possible)

Information / Communication & Networks

Q-Day: RSA and ECC Fall

The day a quantum computer can practically break today’s encryption (RSA, elliptic curves).

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A cryptographically relevant quantum computer would compute keys with Shor’s algorithm in hours to days. When this happens is open; estimates of the qubits required keep falling. Those who have already migrated are protected; unprotected data and systems are not.

What it brings

  • Decrypting today’s intercepted, insufficiently protected data
  • A forced end to legacy cryptography in all systems
  • A touchstone for the post-quantum migration

Prerequisites

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