Critical Minerals & Rare Earths
China's April 2025 rare-earth export controls showed how few countries refine the metals in magnets and batteries; the IEA's July 2026 outlook finds refining still concentrated and investment down 9%.
Open in the interactive tree →Rare earths are not geologically rare, but in 2025 China mined about 270,000 of the world's 390,000 tonnes (USGS) and the top refiner handled 85% of rare-earth refining (IEA). In April 2025 China put export licences on seven medium and heavy rare earths, and some car makers outside China cut output; controls added in October were suspended for one year in November. Rare earths are about 40% of a permanent magnet's cost but under 1% of a vehicle's value, and all critical minerals together are about a quarter of a battery cell's cost. Responses are new mines and refineries, stockpiles, recycling and substitute materials.
As of now
The IEA's Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (16 July 2026) finds that the leading refiner of each mineral (Indonesia for nickel, China for the other key energy minerals) accounted for over three quarters of the growth in refined supply in the past two years. The top supplier's share of rare-earth refining fell from over 90% in 2023 to 85% in 2025 and could reach 70% by 2035 if planned projects open on time, yet by 2035 planned refining capacity would reach only about two-thirds of expected mine output and planned magnet production about one-third. Investment fell 9% in 2025, while public finance commitments more than quadrupled between 2023 and 2025 to $65 billion. The IEA estimates that $6.5 trillion of annual production outside China could be jeopardised if the export controls were fully enforced.
Where today's AI could help
Medium AI leverage. AI can screen many candidate materials and sort scrap quickly, but substitutes need lab proof, and mines, refineries and permits take years.
- screen compositions for magnets and battery materials that need less rare earth, lithium or cobalt
- predict ore bodies from geological data
- sort and trace scrap for recycling
- tune separation chemistry in refineries
Shown so far
- Microsoft and PNNL used AI to screen 32.6 million candidate materials down to 18 and built a working solid-state battery whose electrolyte needs roughly 70% less lithium (January 2024). source
- UK start-up Materials Nexus reported an AI-designed rare-earth-free magnet after screening over 100 million compositions in about three months (June 2024; performance data not independently published). source
Prerequisites
- Neodymium Magnets1982Rare-earth magnets are the product most exposed to the controls
- Lithium-Ion Battery1991Battery cells depend on refined lithium, cobalt, nickel and graphite
- Electric Cars Reach the Mass Market2020–2026Car makers outside China cut output in 2025 when magnet supply tightened
Unlocks
- True Circular EconomyopenRecovering rare earths, lithium and cobalt from old magnets and batteries is the most urgent part of recycling