Human Tech Tree
Current research2022–2026 · Present (2015 – now)

Energy & Industry / Energy

Heat Pumps Scale Up

Heat pumps have outsold gas boilers in the US every year since 2022 and in Germany in 2025, yet supply under 15% of the world's building heat.

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A heat pump moves heat from air, ground or water with electricity instead of burning fuel, and the IEA calls it 3-5 times more efficient than a gas boiler. The IEA estimates that without the heat pumps already installed, gas demand in 2024 would have been about 12% higher in Europe and 35% higher in Japan. Nearly 800,000 people work mainly on heat pumps worldwide.

As of now

The IEA's Global Energy Review 2026 reports that global heat pump sales fell about 2% in 2025: Europe grew 11% (its first rise since 2022, with Germany's first-half sales up 55% and heat pumps outselling gas boilers there for the first time), China was stable, and the US fell about 13% but still outsold gas boilers for the fourth year in a row. The IEA's Heat Pump Monitor (28 July 2026) puts heat pumps below 15% of global building heating demand; under stated policies sales more than double by 2035 and supply about 20% of demand. China holds 35% of global manufacturing capacity, the US 25% and the EU 20%.

Open steps

  • Real-world efficiency in older homes Medium AI leverageA German field test of 77 heat pumps in older houses found seasonal factors of 2.6-4.9 for 49 air units and no link to building age. What separates poor from good installations?
  • Flexible heating for the grid Medium AI leverageHeat pumps made up 2-16% of annual peak electricity demand in major markets in 2024. UK trials shifted heating without comfort loss. Can smart controls scale and stay efficient?
  • Upfront cost and installer capacity Low AI leverageHeat pump equipment often costs 2-3 times the alternatives, installation can cost as much again, and technicians are scarce. Can design and installation get faster and cheaper?
  • Heat pumps for factory heat Medium AI leverageHeat pumps could technically supply up to about 20% of industrial heat, mostly at low and medium temperatures. Steam units at 150 degrees C are only now reaching the market.

Where today's AI could help

Low AI leverage. AI can trim running costs and shift load, but upfront cost, installers and fuel prices decide sales.

  • Learn a building's thermal behaviour to tune flow temperature
  • Shift heating to cheap or low-carbon hours to relieve the grid
  • Detect faults from sensor data before efficiency drops
  • Forecast local heat demand for installers and grid planners

Shown so far

  • In December 2024 Fraunhofer ISE's AI4HP project reported that a transformer-based controller tuning heat pump flow temperature saved 5-13% energy in simulations and raised efficiency (COP) by 25% in a one-week field test, which still needs longer validation. source

Prerequisites

Sources

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