Orbit for Under US$100 per Kilogram
Sending one kilogram, about a litre of water, into orbit still costs thousands of dollars. That is why satellites are small and so few people go to space. Rockets that land and fly again have already cut the price a lot, but each flight still needs weeks of work and a new upper part. To get under 100 dollars per kilogram, a rocket would have to be flown, checked and flown again within days, like an aircraft. Nobody has done that yet.
Open in the interactive tree →The Space Shuttle cost about US$54,500 per kilogram to low orbit and Falcon 9 about US$2,720 at its advertised 2018 price, a twentyfold fall, according to a NASA analysis. Another factor of 30 to 40 is needed to reach US$100 per kilogram, about the level a 1999 NASA study named for economical space solar power. Reusing only the booster is not enough; the upper stage and the pace of flights decide the final price.
As of now
In 2026 Falcon 9 lists at US$74 million for at least 17,400 kg to low orbit with the booster recovered, about US$4,250 per kilogram, and one booster has flown 37 times; internal costs were estimated at US$15-28 million per launch in 2024. Starship, designed to lift 100-150 tonnes when reusable, reached orbit for the first time on its 14th flight on 28 September 2026 and released 26 Starlink V3 satellites; its booster splashed down in the Gulf of Mexico and the ship in the Pacific, so full reuse is not yet shown. A paper on space-based AI data centres (submitted November 2025, revised June 2026) projects about US$200 per kilogram by the mid-2030s from a learning curve.
What is missing
- An upper stage that survives re-entry and flies again with little repair
- Turnaround of days instead of weeks, with enough launch sites, range time and airspace
- Engines and propellant produced at a fraction of today's cost
- Enough paying cargo to keep hundreds of launches a year busy
Becomes possible once solved
- Clearing dead satellites and debris at an affordable price
- Large telescopes, stations and factories built in orbit
- Tests of space-based solar power at a meaningful scale
- Equipment and supplies for Moon and Mars bases without prohibitive freight bills
Open steps
- Reflying a Rocket's Upper Stage Medium AI leverageBring a stage back from orbital speed through re-entry and fly it again after only an inspection. Most upper stages are still discarded, and Starship's ship ended its latest flight in the ocean.
- Launching Rockets Every Few Days Low AI leverageHandle, fuel and clear a vehicle for launch fast enough that one rocket family flies hundreds of times a year, with enough paying cargo to use the capacity.
- Cheap Rocket Engines and Propellant Medium AI leverageBuild rocket engines by the hundred at a fraction of today's unit cost and produce and handle the methane and liquid oxygen at industrial scale.
- Launch Sites, Airspace and Licences Low AI leverageEnvironmental reviews, licences, range safety and airspace rules that allow far more launches without years of delay or risk to people on the ground.
Where today's AI could help
Low AI leverage. Price is set by hardware reuse, launch rate and permits that only real flights can test, so AI mainly speeds design and simulation.
- Generate and optimise engine, injector and structure designs
- Simulate re-entry heating and combustion
- Predict wear from inspection and flight data
- Schedule launch sites and ranges
Shown so far
- LEAP 71's Noyron model designed a 5 kN copper rocket engine in under two weeks from specification to manufacturing; it was hot-fired in June 2024 (company claim). source
- NASA Goddard's AI-designed 'evolved structures' take about two hours to draft and can be up to two-thirds lighter (reported February 2023). source
Prerequisites
- Reusable Rockets2015Booster reuse is the first step down the price curve.
- Satellite Mega-Constellations2019Constellation launches supply the flight rate that scale needs.
Unlocks
- Humans on MarsopenThe mass that must reach orbit makes launch price decisive.
- Routine, Affordable Access to Space2040s?Everything here depends on launch costing a small fraction of today's price.
- Sustainable Earth Orbit2040s?Clean-up missions pay only if launch is cheap.
- Factories on Moon and MarsopenLaunch price decides how much equipment can be sent.