Paris 2015, 1.5 °C breached
The 2015 Paris Agreement set a 1.5 °C goal; 2024 was the first calendar year above it and 2023-2025 the first three-year average above it.
Open in the interactive tree →Adopted on 12 December 2015, the agreement aims to keep warming well below 2 °C and to pursue 1.5 °C. The goal refers to long-term averages, so a single year above 1.5 °C does not yet mean it is lost, but the remaining carbon budget for it is only a few years of current emissions.
As of October 2026
Copernicus puts 2024 at 1.60 °C above pre-industrial (WMO: 1.55 °C) and 2025 as the third warmest year at 1.47 °C, and 2023-2025 was the first three-year period averaging above 1.5 °C. A strong El Niño is building: August 2026 was the joint warmest month on record at 1.65 °C, and NOAA's September outlook gives over 90% odds of a very strong event this winter. CO2 at Mauna Loa peaked at about 432 ppm in May 2026 (Scripps 432.0, NOAA 432.3), 1.8 ppm above 2025, and WMO gives a 75% chance that the 2026-2030 average exceeds 1.5 °C. COP30 in Belém closed on 22 November 2025 without a fossil-fuel roadmap in its final text.
Open steps
- Emission inventory from space High AI leverageBuild continuously updated inventory of emissions per facility worldwide (power, refineries, steel, cement) from satellite plumes, verifiable independent of reports.
- Six-to-twelve month El Niño forecasts High AI leverageGet AI forecasts of El Niño and marine heatwaves 6-12 months ahead whose skill holds up in live operation, not only in hindcasts, to support adaptation planning.
- Grid control with 70%+ renewables Medium AI leverageLearn optimal dispatch and reserve policies from grid simulations to maintain stability (frequency, voltage) with 70%+ wind and solar.
Where AI could help
Low AI leverage. The 1.5 C overshoot comes from emissions and politics; AI helps measure emissions and forecast, but it does not change what governments do.
- Track emissions facility by facility from satellite data to check national reports
- Forecast El Nino and extremes better to plan adaptation
- Optimise grids and demand to integrate more renewables
- Search for low-carbon materials and industrial processes
Shown so far
- In November 2022, Climate TRACE released an inventory of 72,612 emission sources built with machine learning on satellite and sensor data, covering all Paris Agreement parties. source
Prerequisites
- Keeling curve (CO2 record)1958
- Earth observation by satellite1960
- Climate models1967
- El Niño-Southern Oscillation1969-1994El Niño years add to global heat; ENSO forecasts frame the warming outlook
- IPCC climate assessments1988IPCC reports supplied the science behind the 1.5 C goal
- UN Climate Convention (UNFCCC)1992The Paris Agreement is negotiated under the UN Climate Convention