Cheap Green Hydrogen
Hydrogen is a feedstock for fertiliser and refineries and may later serve steel and chemicals, but today it comes almost entirely from natural gas and coal. Green hydrogen, made by splitting water with renewable power in electrolysers, still costs more, and low-emission hydrogen is under 1% of use. Missing are very cheap renewable power for many hours a year, cheaper and longer-lived electrolysers that use less platinum and iridium, and committed buyers willing to pay the premium.
Open in the interactive tree →Hydrogen is a feedstock for fertiliser (Haber-Bosch), refineries and, in future, steel and chemicals. Today it comes almost entirely from natural gas and coal; green hydrogen is made by electrolysis from renewable power. It is expensive because electrolysers are costly, power must be cheap for many hours a year, and buyers shy away from the premium.
As of now
According to the IEA the world used nearly 100 Mt of hydrogen in 2024, less than 1% of it low-emission; electrolysers cost $2,000-2,600/kW outside China and $600-1,200/kW in China. The IEA cut its 2030 pipeline of announced low-emission hydrogen from 49 to 37 Mt per year (electrolysis projects make up over 80% of the cut), and only 4.2 Mt per year have reached a final investment decision. Investment still rose to about $8 billion in 2025 (+80%) and installed electrolysis capacity was projected to approach 5 GW by the end of 2025, with China holding the largest share.
What is missing
- Very cheap renewable electricity for many hours a year, so electrolysers run at high utilisation
- Electrolysers that are cheaper, longer-lived and use less platinum and iridium
- Committed buyers who pay the premium - quotas or CO2 prices
- Transport and storage: pipelines, caverns, conversion to ammonia
- Clear rules on what counts as green (for example the EU rules for renewable fuels)
Becomes possible once solved
- Steel and chemicals without coal and natural gas
- Fertiliser without fossil hydrogen
- Synthetic aviation and shipping fuels
- Seasonal storage of renewable power
Open steps
- Iridium-free electrolyser anodes High AI leverageFind acid-stable oxygen-evolution catalysts without iridium that last tens of thousands of hours at industrial current.
- Stack lifetime and degradation Medium AI leveragePredict and slow the degradation of membranes, catalysts and plates under start-stop operation to reach very long life.
- Operation on variable power Medium AI leverageRun electrolysers efficiently on fluctuating wind and solar power, with sizing and control that maximize output per euro.
- Cheap membranes and AEM stacks Medium AI leverageMake durable stacks without platinum-group metals and fluorinated membranes that compete with PEM and alkaline units.
Where today's AI could help
Medium AI leverage. AI speeds the search for cheaper, iridium-free catalysts, but green hydrogen cost is dominated by cheap power, utilization and buyers willing to pay.
- Predict catalyst activity and stability to find low-iridium or iridium-free anode materials
- Run autonomous labs that synthesize and test thousands of compositions
- Optimize electrolyzer operation under variable renewable power using forecasts
- Model membrane and stack degradation to extend lifetime
Shown so far
- In September 2026 a preprint reported an AI-guided lab that synthesized and screened 2,942 catalysts and found iridium- and ruthenium-free palladium oxides, one holding overpotential below 0.5 V for 1,000 hours (not peer reviewed). source
Prerequisites
- Electrolysis (Davy, Faraday)1807Green hydrogen is made by water electrolysis, first achieved in 1800
- Haber-Bosch ammonia synthesis1909
- Modern Wind Turbines~1980
- Solar Boom & Price Collapse2015–2026