EV Mass Market

Over 20 million electric cars were sold in 2025 (one in four new cars); for 2026 the IEA expects almost 30%.

Chinese manufacturers supply about 60% of electric cars. Battery packs have become roughly 90% cheaper since 2010 ($108/kWh on average in 2025, $99/kWh for electric cars; BloombergNEF battery price survey, December 2025). By market share, electric cars are already a main line of the car industry.

As of October 2026

According to the IEA Global EV Outlook 2026 (20 May 2026), over 20 million electric cars were sold worldwide in 2025 (+20%), one quarter of all new cars; China had nearly 55% market share, Europe 28% (4.2 million, +30%) and the US about 1.5 million, flat. For 2026 the IEA expects 23 million (close to 30%), although global Q1 was 8% below the previous year (Europe +30%, Asia-Pacific excluding China +80%). The IEA sees further tailwind in the energy crisis after the Middle East war that began on 28 February 2026 and disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, which it calls the largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market.

Open steps

Fast charging without early ageing Medium AI leverageProve that 5 to 10 minute charging at 1 MW or more keeps batteries healthy for 10 or more years, and limit surges on the grid.
Closed-loop battery recycling Medium AI leverageRecover lithium, nickel and graphite at high purity and low cost, using pack composition data from digital battery passports.
Smart charging and vehicle-to-grid Medium AI leverageCoordinate millions of cars as flexible load and storage without hurting battery life or privacy.
Cost parity for small cars Low AI leverageCut pack and platform cost enough for small, cheap EVs in lower-income markets, using LFP or sodium cells and simpler structures.

Where AI could help

Low AI leverage. Mass-market growth rests on prices, charging networks and policy; AI helps battery research, charging and grid management at the margins.

Find fast-charging protocols that spare battery life with closed-loop optimisation
Predict cell ageing to cut warranty risk and give used batteries a value
Plan charger locations and grid upgrades from traffic and load data
Manage smart charging to flatten peak load

Shown so far

In February 2020, a Nature study used machine learning plus Bayesian optimisation to find high-cycle-life fast-charging protocols among 224 candidates in 16 days, against over 500 days by exhaustive search. source

Prerequisites

Neodymium Magnets1982Most electric-car traction motors use NdFeB permanent magnets
Lithium-Ion Battery1991
Mass-Produced Electric Car2008–2012

Sources

More in Transport & Mobility · Present

All 50 points in Transport & Mobility →

Open in the interactive tree →