Eradicating Malaria
Malaria is a disease caused by a tiny parasite that mosquitoes carry from person to person. Every year it makes hundreds of millions of people sick and kills over half a million, mostly small children in Africa. We have bed nets, medicines and two vaccines, and the disease has already disappeared from dozens of countries. But the parasite is learning to survive our best medicine, mosquitoes are shrugging off the insecticides on nets, and the money to fight it is falling short. Wiping malaria out everywhere, as was done with smallpox, needs new medicines, longer-lasting protection and steady funding.
Open in the interactive tree →Malaria is caused by Plasmodium parasites passed on by Anopheles mosquitoes. The WHO's Global Malaria Eradication Program (1955-1969), built on DDT spraying and rapid treatment, cleared malaria from North America, Europe and the former Soviet Union but was suspended as mosquitoes and parasites became resistant and money and organisation fell short elsewhere. Today 47 countries and one territory are certified malaria-free, yet the disease still kills more than half a million people a year.
As of now
WHO estimates 282 million cases and 610,000 deaths in 2024, about 9 million more cases than in 2023, with 95% of deaths in Africa. Partial artemisinin resistance is confirmed or suspected in at least 8 African countries, pyrethroid resistance in mosquitoes in 48 countries, and 3.9 billion US dollars were spent in 2024 against a 9.3 billion target. New tools include two vaccines in routine use in 24 countries, dual-ingredient nets, spatial repellents (conditional WHO recommendation, August 2025) and ganaplacide-lumefantrine, a non-artemisinin combination that met its Phase 3 goal in November 2025 (cure rate 97.4% against 94.0% for the current standard drug). The 2019 Lancet Commission called for eradication by 2050, while WHO's advisers then judged it too early to set a date.
What is missing
- A malaria medicine that still works once artemisinin fails
- Mosquito control that works against insecticide-resistant mosquitoes
- Vaccines or antibodies that protect for years and also stop the parasite spreading
- A safe, simple cure for parasites that sleep in the liver (P. vivax)
- Steady funding and health systems that reach and clear the last cases
Becomes possible once solved
- Ending around 600,000 deaths a year, most of them young children
- Letting countries stop buying nets, spraying and seasonal drug campaigns
- Freeing health budgets and family incomes in the poorest regions
Open steps
- Malaria Medicines That Outlast Resistance Medium AI leverageKeep malaria treatable as partial artemisinin resistance spreads in Africa, with new drugs and drug pairs that parasites cannot overcome at once.
- Mosquito Control That Beats Resistance Low AI leverageKeep nets, spraying and new tools such as spatial repellents effective as mosquitoes resist pyrethroids (confirmed in 48 countries) and the Asian species Anopheles stephensi spreads in Africa.
- Long-Lasting Malaria Vaccines and Antibodies Medium AI leverageBuild vaccines or antibody injections that protect for years rather than months and also stop parasites from passing to mosquitoes.
- Curing Hidden Liver-Stage Malaria Parasites Low AI leverageGive a safe, short cure for P. vivax parasites that sleep in the liver and cause relapses; the standard 14-day primaquine course is hard to finish and needs a test for G6PD deficiency.
- Finding and Clearing the Last Malaria Cases Medium AI leverageFund and run surveillance that finds every remaining infection, including those without symptoms, when 2024 spending was 3.9 billion dollars against a 9.3 billion target.
Where today's AI could help
Medium AI leverage. AI speeds the search for new drug candidates and reading of resistance, but medicines, vaccines and nets must be proven in trials, and money and politics decide the rest.
- Rank millions of compounds for activity against malaria parasite stages
- Generate and score new molecules that can be made from locally available chemicals
- Read resistance mutations in parasite genomes
Shown so far
- August 2024: machine-learning models for several parasite life-cycle stages led to 16 tested compounds, six active against at least two stages. source
- November 2025: Medicines for Malaria Venture's open MAIP model reports a tenfold higher hit rate in validation; the dd4gh design tool was scheduled for March 2026 (company figures). source
Prerequisites
- Synthetic Pesticides1939DDT spraying drove the failed 1950s eradication attempt.
- World Health Organization1948Eradication needs a global coordinator, as the smallpox campaign had.
- Artemisinin1972Artemisinin combinations are the backbone of treatment, and they are now failing in places.
- Malaria Vaccines (RTS,S, R21)2021–2024Two vaccines now protect children in routine programmes.
Unlocks
- A Malaria-Free World2050s?Needs the open problems of drug resistance, mosquito control and last-case clearing solved.