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Current research2024-2026 · Present (2015 – Oct 2026)

Civilization / Society, Economy & Law

Crypto & Stablecoin Rules

The EU (MiCA) and the US (GENIUS Act, July 2025) regulate crypto-assets; stablecoins reach roughly $300 billion in circulation.

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MiCA applies to stablecoins since 30 June 2024 and to service providers since 30 December 2024; its transitional period ended on 1 July 2026. The GENIUS Act (signed 18 July 2025) requires one-to-one backing of US payment stablecoins with US dollars or other low-risk liquid assets.

As of October 2026

Total stablecoin market cap is roughly $300 billion (CoinGecko listed about $293 billion at the time of checking, with Tether at about $184 billion and USDC at about $74 billion; the FATF put it at $316 billion in October 2025). US regulators missed the 18 July 2026 target for final GENIUS Act rules: by early October only proposed rules and a Treasury interim final rule on state certifications (30 September) had appeared, and the act takes effect by 18 January 2027 at the latest. The CLARITY Act on market structure failed a Senate procedural vote (49 yes, 50 no; 60 needed), with no Democratic vote in favor.

Open steps

  • On-chain reserve verification Medium AI leverageDevelop open-source systems where issuers post cryptographic proof that reserves match circulating tokens.
  • Risk metrics for DeFi protocols Medium AI leverageDevelop standardised metrics (liquidation risk, audit standards, validator concentration) for regulators and retail.
  • Wash trade and manipulation Medium AI leverageTrain classifiers on on-chain and exchange data to detect market manipulation for regulatory enforcement.

Where AI could help

Low AI leverage. Rule-making and cross-border supervision are the bottleneck; AI helps with monitoring and tracing illicit flows at the margins.

  • Transaction-graph analysis to trace illicit flows and support freezes
  • Automated monitoring of reserve disclosures and issuer filings
  • Compare rule texts across jurisdictions to spot gaps

Prerequisites

Unlocks

Sources

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