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Current research2026 · Present (2015 – Oct 2026)

Energy & Industry / Energy

Enhanced Geothermal (EGS)

In September 2026 Fervo's Cape Station in Utah entered commercial operation - its first 33-MW block is what Fervo calls the first greenfield EGS plant.

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Conventional geothermal needs naturally hot water and is therefore limited to a few places. Enhanced Geothermal Systems use horizontal drilling from the shale-oil industry to reach hot dry rock and pump water through artificially created fractures. The technology promises around-the-clock low-carbon power in many more locations.

As of October 2026

Fervo's Cape Station in Beaver County, Utah, was synchronised to the grid on 24 September 2026 and declared commercial operation on 30 September 2026; the first of three planned 33-MW blocks delivers 33 MW net, and Fervo says it is the first greenfield enhanced geothermal development to reach contractual commercial operation. Phase I is to reach about 100 MW (two more blocks by 1 January 2027), Phase II another 400 MW by 2028. Fervo raised $462 million in December 2025, including from Google.

Open steps

  • Cheaper, faster hot-rock wells Medium AI leverageCut drilling time and cost further for deep, hot, hard-rock horizontal wells.
  • Reservoir lifetime and heat drawdown Medium AI leverageShow with years of operating data that fracture networks keep their flow and temperature for 20 to 30 years, and model short-circuiting between wells.
  • Induced-seismicity control Medium AI leverageForecast and limit stimulation-induced earthquakes with real-time traffic-light systems, so projects near towns can get permits.
  • Finding hot, permeable rock High AI leverageMap where temperature, stress and rock type allow enhanced or blind geothermal systems, using sparse data.

Where AI could help

Medium AI leverage. AI helps find heat and steer drilling, but drilling cost, permits and grid access decide how fast EGS grows beyond its first block.

  • Predict subsurface heat and permeability from regional geology to pick drill sites
  • Tune drilling parameters in real time to cut cost per metre
  • Monitor fracture growth and flow with fibre-optic and seismic data
  • Model reservoir thermal decline to plan well spacing

Shown so far

  • In December 2025, startup Zanskar announced, according to the company, a blind geothermal system in Nevada found with its AI prediction engine and confirmed by two wells (121 C at about 823 m); it is not an EGS site. source

Prerequisites

Sources

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