Solar Boom & Price Collapse

About 647 GW of solar went online worldwide in 2025; solar overtook wind for the first time and met 75% of demand growth.

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Since 2010 solar module prices have fallen by roughly 90% through mass production mainly in China, learning effects and overcapacity. Chinese TOPCon modules traded at about 0.108 US dollars per watt (FOB China) in late September 2026. Perovskite-silicon tandem cells reached 35.5% efficiency in the lab in July 2026 (LONGi, certified by the EU test institute ESTI), but without series production.

As of October 2026

In 2025 about 647 GW of solar was added worldwide (Ember), bringing installed capacity to around 2,900 GW. Solar generated 2,778 TWh (+636 TWh, +30%) and overtook wind for the first time; renewables passed coal for the first time (33.8% vs 33.0%), and fossil generation fell in both China and India. In 2026 Chinese installations dropped sharply after a pricing reform: 72 GW in the first half instead of 212 GW (-66%), and the industry association CPIA expects 180-240 GW for the year against about 315 GW in 2025.

Open steps

Faster grid-connection studies High AI leverageAutomate interconnection and stability studies so solar farms are not stuck in multi-year queues before they can feed power into the grid.
Using the midday surplus Medium AI leverageMatch solar peaks with storage, flexible demand and forecasts so midday surplus is used rather than curtailed or sold at negative prices.
Less silver, and module recycling Medium AI leverageReplace silver contacts with copper and build recycling lines that recover silver, silicon and glass before the large waste wave of the 2030s.
Grid-forming control for solar plants Medium AI leverageProve that grids with a very high inverter share stay stable when solar plants provide grid-forming control, including faults and black starts.

Where AI could help

Low AI leverage. Solar is a mature factory product; AI helps cell research, forecasting and grids, but prices, policy and grid build-out set the pace.

Discover stable perovskite and tandem cell materials with self-driving labs
Forecast solar output hours ahead to cut curtailment and balancing cost
Speed up grid-connection studies, siting and permitting with data tools
Detect panel faults and soiling from drone and inverter data

Shown so far

In 2026, Nature reported an autonomous closed-loop lab that found a passivation molecule giving perovskite cells of 27.22% efficiency (small area) and about five times better reproducibility than manual fabrication. source

Solar Boom & Price Collapse

As of October 2026

Open steps

Where AI could help

Shown so far

Prerequisites

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Sources

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