Human Tech Tree
Current research2022–2026 · Present (2015 – Oct 2026)

Energy & Industry / Energy

Heat Pumps Scale Up

Heat pumps have outsold gas boilers in the US every year since 2022 and in Germany in 2025, yet supply under 15% of the world's building heat.

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A heat pump moves heat from air, ground or water with electricity instead of burning fuel, and the IEA calls it 3-5 times more efficient than a gas boiler. The IEA estimates that without the heat pumps already installed, gas demand in 2024 would have been about 12% higher in Europe and 35% higher in Japan. Nearly 800,000 people work mainly on heat pumps worldwide.

As of October 2026

The IEA's Global Energy Review 2026 reports that global heat pump sales fell about 2% in 2025: Europe grew 11% (its first rise since 2022, with Germany's first-half sales up 55% and heat pumps outselling gas boilers there for the first time), China was stable, and the US fell about 13% but still outsold gas boilers for the fourth year in a row. The IEA's Heat Pump Monitor (28 July 2026) puts heat pumps below 15% of global building heating demand; under stated policies sales more than double by 2035 and supply about 20% of demand. China holds 35% of global manufacturing capacity, the US 25% and the EU 20%.

Open steps

  • Real-world efficiency in older homes Medium AI leverageA German field test of 77 heat pumps in older houses found seasonal factors of 2.6-4.9 for 49 air units and no link to building age. What separates poor from good installations?
  • Flexible heating for the grid Medium AI leverageHeat pumps made up 2-16% of annual peak electricity demand in major markets in 2024. UK trials shifted heating without comfort loss. Can smart controls scale and stay efficient?
  • Upfront cost and installer capacity Low AI leverageHeat pump equipment often costs 2-3 times the alternatives, installation can cost as much again, and technicians are scarce. Can design and installation get faster and cheaper?
  • Heat pumps for factory heat Medium AI leverageHeat pumps could technically supply up to about 20% of industrial heat, mostly at low and medium temperatures. Steam units at 150 degrees C are only now reaching the market.

Where AI could help

Low AI leverage. AI can trim running costs and shift load, but upfront cost, installers and fuel prices decide sales.

  • Learn a building's thermal behaviour to tune flow temperature
  • Shift heating to cheap or low-carbon hours to relieve the grid
  • Detect faults from sensor data before efficiency drops
  • Forecast local heat demand for installers and grid planners

Shown so far

  • In December 2024 Fraunhofer ISE's AI4HP project reported that a transformer-based controller tuning heat pump flow temperature saved 5-13% energy in simulations and raised efficiency (COP) by 25% in a one-week field test, which still needs longer validation. source

Prerequisites

Sources

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