Humans on Mars
Landing and living on Mars needs orbital refuelling, landing ships of tens of tonnes and protecting people for years; none is demonstrated yet.
Open in the interactive tree →A trip takes 6-9 months each way with launch windows every 26 months, so a crew would be away for 2.5-3 years unless it stays. The heaviest payload landed on Mars so far is about one tonne.
As of October 2026
Because ship-to-ship refuelling has not been demonstrated and SpaceX has turned to the Moon, no Starship Mars mission is expected in the late-2026 transfer window that Musk once targeted. In February 2026 Musk said SpaceX had shifted focus to a Moon city and would start a Mars city in about five to seven years; SpaceX names 2028 as the target for Starship cargo flights to Mars. The propellant transfer test planned for March 2026 had not happened and had no date as of September 2026. NASA plans a crewed Moon landing with Artemis IV in 2028 and treats Mars as a later step.
What is missing
- Orbital refuelling of a ship with tens of tonnes of propellant (not yet demonstrated)
- Landing masses above about 20 tonnes on Mars (largest so far about one tonne)
- Radiation protection and closed-loop life support for 2-3 years
- Making propellant on Mars (ISRU) for the return trip
- Medical and psychological care without resupply
Becomes possible once solved
- Field research on Mars geology and past life
- A first off-world settlement
- Production of propellant and supplies on another planet
- A stepping stone toward the outer solar system
Open steps
- Orbital propellant transfer Low AI leverageDemonstrate moving tens of tonnes of cryogenic propellant between ships in orbit with low boil-off and reliable docking.
- Landing 20+ tonnes on Mars Medium AI leverageDesign entry, descent and landing for masses above 20 tonnes in thin air, with engines firing into supersonic flow.
- Propellant from Martian resources Medium AI leverageMake methane and oxygen on Mars from ice and CO2 at tonne scale, with plants and catalysts that survive dust and cold.
- Medical care without Earth Medium AI leverageGive crews reliable diagnosis and treatment support when messages take up to 45 minutes round trip and evacuation is impossible.
- Autonomous surface operations Medium AI leveragePlan and check rover and robot work on Mars, such as site preparation and equipment set-up, without live control from Earth.
Where AI could help
Low AI leverage. Orbital refuelling, heavy landings and radiation shielding are hardware and launch problems; AI helps with planning, autonomy and materials.
- Plan rover and construction-robot operations and write checked command sequences despite the signal delay
- Design in-situ propellant and oxygen chemistry, such as catalysts from Martian soil, in automated labs
- Optimise entry, descent and landing and transfer trajectories by simulation
- Run digital twins of habitats and life support to find failures before launch
Shown so far
- In December 2025, NASA JPL used Anthropic's Claude to plan Perseverance's drives of 8 and 10 December (210 m and 246 m), checked in a digital twin against over 500,000 telemetry variables. source
- In November 2023, a robotic AI chemist in China used a machine-learning model over more than three million compositions to make oxygen-evolving catalysts from Martian meteorite material. source
Prerequisites
- Space stations1971
- Reusable rockets2015
- Commercial Crew Spaceflight2020The company now flying astronauts to orbit is the one planning Mars missions
- Artemis II lunar flyby2026
Unlocks
- Permanent Mars base2040s?